Subscribe & Save Profit Calculator

PROFITABILITY LAB / 03

Subscribe & Save economics.

Compare full-price one-time purchases with first-order subscription offers and recurring revenue. Model GENIERR's 50% welcome discount, 25% renewal discount, and a FREE first-order product.

50% FIRST · 25% RENEWALS

Base Product EconomicsEdit price, product and shipping costs, payment fees, Meta ROAS/CAC, returns and overhead. These assumptions drive the subscription results.

Product & selling price

Product name Product selling price USD Discount / coupons % of product price Units / orders per month 1 unit per order model Shipping charged to customer USD per order Customer contribution: shipping tax Not modeled; sales tax excluded

Product, shipping & 3PL

Factory COGS $/unit Freight / import / duties $/unit; exclude if in COGS 3PL pick & pack $/order Carrier postage cost $/order Packaging / inserts $/order Storage / inventory allocation $/sold unit

Shopify & payment fees

Payment processing rate % of gross transaction Payment processing fixed fee $/order Shopify extra transaction fee % if applicable; 0% for Shopify Payments-only Subscription / app variable fee % of transaction Other payment / fraud fee $/order Agency / variable commission % of order revenue

Example card and transaction rates must be replaced with your actual Shopify plan and payment provider rates. ROAS is Meta-attributed revenue / Meta spend. Modeled CAC is Meta spend divided by all modeled new customers. Attribution and new-customer assumptions are separate inputs.

Meta advertising & CAC

Meta acquisition model Choose ROAS or CAC Meta ROAS Attributed revenue / ad spend Meta CAC $/new customer Meta-attributed revenue share % of all order revenue New-customer share % of all orders

Returns & overhead

Refunded order rate % of shipments Extra return / disposal loss $/returned order Other variable cost $/order Shopify plan / apps / fixed overhead $/month, allocated to this product

Subscription inputs

First-order subscriber discount % of lead product Renewal discount % of lead product FREE product cost COGS + inbound, $/first order FREE gift additional fulfillment $/first order Subscription order share % of monthly orders New subscribers among subscription orders % of subscription orders First-order Meta CAC $/new subscriber acquired Renewal marketing cost $/renewal order, if any Subscriptions app fee $/subscription order Expected paid renewal orders per subscriber within 36 months Delivery frequency weeks, planning only

The FREE product costs your business money, even when the customer pays $0. Your first-order CAC is charged once per newly acquired subscriber. Renewal marketing is charged per repeat order. The number of paid renewals is a scenario, not a retention forecast.

Compare order types

One-time

First subscriber order

Recurring renewal

Blended monthly profit

Blended contribution / order

Monthly first subscription orders

Monthly renewals

Break-even volume lift vs all one-time

Subscriber lifetime profit after CAC

Renewal interval

36-month LTV : CAC ratios

THE 3:1 RULE-36-month contribution LTV ÷ acquisition CAC

Calculating

Maximum CAC for 3:1-

Current acquisition CAC-

CAC headroom vs 3:1-

Renewals included (36 months)-

Target at least 3.0× lifetime contribution before acquisition costs per $1 of CAC. Maximum allowable CAC = 36-month contribution LTV ÷ 3. This is a benchmark, not a guarantee of profitability.

Revenue LTV ÷ CAC

Contribution LTV ÷ CAC

12-month LTV : CAC ratios

Revenue LTV ÷ CAC-

Contribution LTV ÷ CAC-

Includes the first order and - modeled paid renewals within 12 months, based on delivery frequency and expected renewals. Both horizons may match when all modeled renewals fit within the first year.

Acquisition CAC payback

Revenue LTV = net revenue of first order + expected renewal orders. Contribution LTV = revenue minus product, gift, payment, fulfillment, return and renewal-marketing costs, before acquisition CAC. Contribution LTV ÷ CAC is the more meaningful profitability ratio; it is not a guarantee of future retention.

Subscription monthly profit holds total order volume fixed. 12-month and 36-month ratios both cap expected paid renewals by what the selected delivery frequency permits during each period. These are scenario assumptions, not observed retention. Acquisition CAC is deducted once. Renewal advertising, if any, is charged on each renewal. No gift or fixed-cost double counting.

SourcesShopify pricing Shopify Payments fees Third-party fees